However, current knowledge is largely qualitative, and the probabilistic behavior of tropical cyclone trajectories needs to be better understood in order to isolate potentially predictable aspects of landfall. These trajectories, in turn, vary strongly with the season ( Gray 1979 Harr and Elsberry 1991), as well as on interannual ( Chan 1985) and interdecadal time scales ( Ho et al. The risk of landfall of a typhoon or tropical storm depends on its trajectory. Typhoons have a large socioeconomic impact in many Asian countries. The relationships of each cluster type with the large-scale circulation, sea surface temperatures, and the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are studied in a companion paper. Tropical cyclone landfalls over East and Southeast Asia are found to be strongly cluster dependent, both in terms of frequency and region of impact. Three straight-moving trajectory types have very small within-cluster spread, while the recurving types are more diffuse. Intensity and seasonality of cyclones, though not used by the clustering algorithm, are both highly stratified from cluster to cluster. Several distinct types of straight-moving, as well as recurving, trajectories are identified, thus enriching this main distinction found in previous studies. These clusters are then analyzed in terms of genesis location, trajectory, landfall, intensity, and seasonality.īoth genesis location and trajectory play important roles in defining the clusters. The best-track 1950–2002 dataset is described by seven distinct clusters. Each component of the mixture model consists of a quadratic regression curve of cyclone position against time.
A new probabilistic clustering technique, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone trajectories in the western North Pacific.
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